Lasting Fulfillment & Cognitive Dissonance

The U.S. has hit a new low in the world happiness rankings:

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But the Good News: Happiness Isn’t Everything

In happiness research, the British-American tradition is to think of happiness as the ultimate goal in life. Being healthy, having harmonious relationships, finding meaning in life and work, etc. are considered to be steps on the way to achieving maximum happiness (see left hand sketch in the chart below).

In other cultures, in particular in Asian and African cultures, happiness is considered to be one part of well-being but not the ultimate goal in life. Rather, happiness interacts with other factors such as meaning or spiritually to create a much more diverse assessment of well-being (or what people like to call ‘the good life’) as shown on the right-hand side of the chart below.

If you look at happiness in this broader context, then achieving maximum happiness will not be your goal in life. This in turn increases life satisfaction and well-being because other factors such as spirituality or living in harmony with nature and other people are much easier to control than happiness itself. Happiness is simply too fragile and vulnerable to external shocks.

Analysing the responses of tens of thousands of people worldwide, here is an overview chart of the optimal level of happiness that people in different countries aim for. Note how in general people in Western Europe try to achieve very high to extreme levels of happiness while people in Asia and Africa are content with more moderate levels of happiness.

What do we learn from this? Maybe trying to cheer my readers up by bringing them a week of good news isn’t really increasing their happiness. Rather, we all should look for a content life where happiness is in harmony with spirituality, nature, our friends, and family. Get off the hedonic treadmill and stop thinking about how to maximise returns for a moment. Take a step back and ask yourself what true well-being looks like for you. Because if you increase well-being, you will be able to better deal with the inevitable bad news that bombards us all the time and will continue to do so forever.

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Cognitive dissonance arises when a person holds two different beliefs that are inconsistent with one another. The theory is that when this happens it causes our minds discomfort which we then seek to reduce. Whenever this inconsistency in our attitudes, ideas or opinions kicks in our default is to eliminate that dissonance. Humans have evolved over time to avoid discomfort, so when we encounter issues that we disagree with it’s much easier to give ourselves a mental break to avoid an internal conflict.

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Those who achieve lasting fulfillment often do it in this order:

  1. Financial Freedom – Build stability first. This doesn’t mean getting rich—just having enough to live without constant financial stress, and having saved enough to be able to look forward to next steps.
  2. Time Freedom – Use financial stability to create time autonomy. Maybe that means working remotely, taking sabbaticals, or designing a more flexible life.
  3. Freedom of Purpose – With financial and time security in place, focus on what gives life meaning.

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U.S. home price gains or losses over the last 75 years below. What stands out to me is that we all remember the run from 1997 through 2005, but the 1974 to 1981 run was just as spectacular. Those gains came at a time when the 10-year treasury yield rose from 7% to 16% (mortgage rates are historically 2 to 3% above the 10-year treasury rate). The other standout to me was how insane 2021 was for price gains relative to any other year in history coming off an already blistering second half of 2020.

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Academy Award-winning filmmaker Errol Morris (The Fog of War, The Thin Blue Line) turns his lens to an unlikely cast of upstarts who transformed the investment landscape in the documentary Tune Out the Noise. The film chronicles a group of academics at the University of Chicago in the 1960s whose groundbreaking research challenged Wall Street’s status quo and was used by firms to disrupt traditional methods of investing, ultimately reshaping the way the world views markets. 

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