Time, Work, Beer & A.I.

Does Time Seem To Be Flying By? There Are Ways To Slow It Down. Exposure to variety in your life creates memories, which in turn makes time seem to pass slower because there is more to look back on. For children, fresh experiences and “firsts” are a natural part of everyday life — losing that first tooth, first day of school, first bicycle. This constant stream of new occurrences stretches the passage of time in a young mind.

Older adults, on the other hand, often slip into predictable patterns where days differ only by the calendar date. With scant new memories being formed between existing time markers like birthdays and holidays, Christmas seems to roll around quicker each year.

So as simple as it sounds, if you want time to slow down, the key is to intentionally introduce more novel experiences into your daily routine. Researchers divide these into two categories:

Distinct novelty. Taking a trip to somewhere you have never been fires a whole different system in your mind that preserves all the details like a high-resolution photo, creating vivid memories you recall for years to come. Your brain’s reaction is, “This looks important. I’d better save all of this!”

Common novelty. You decide to try a different restaurant in your neighborhood instead of the ones you normally frequent. It’s new but related to something you already know, so the impression is not particularly powerful.

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Typically, what you find in highly successful people is that an addiction to work is, in fact, based on an inchoate belief that love from others—including spouses, parents, and friends—can be earned only through constant toil and exceptional merit.

Why might someone fall prey to such an erroneous belief? It could be the way you were raised. Workaholic parents tend to have workaholic kids. If you grow up seeing adulthood modeled by people who work all hours and are rarely home, you can be forgiven for regarding this as appropriate behavior for a responsible spouse and parent. This is at least partly the same mechanism behind the fact that you are much likelier to become an alcoholic if you were raised by one.

Researchers have also shown that when parents express love for a child in a conditional way based on the child’s behavior, that person is likely to grow up feeling that they deserve love only through good conduct and hard work. This might sound as though I’m describing terrible parents, but I don’t mean to do so at all; well-intentioned parental encouragement can be heard by a child as a message about their worthiness.

In the workaholic’s case, it might look like this: Your parents wanted you to succeed in school and in life, so they gave you the most love and attention when you got good report cards, won at sports, or earned the top spot in the orchestra. You were a bright kid, and put two and two together: I am extra lovable when I earn accolades. In my experience, this describes the childhood of a lot of people who strove to be special to gain their parents’ attention, and who carry this behavior into adulthood by trying to earn the love of others through compulsive work.

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Michelob Ultra has become king of the hill among beer brands. By topping the sales by volume charts for 2025, it has ousted Modelo Especial as America’s best-selling beer.

While its lower caloric content certainly appealed to many people, some of Michelob Ultra’s success can also be credited to aggressive marketing campaigns, which helped the brand gain notoriety at major sporting events like the FIFA Club World Cup, NBA games, and the PGA tour. That falls in line with Michelob Ultra’s focus on folks with active lifestyles.

More people are seeing Michelob Ultra on tap. The new top dog surpassed its sister brand, Bud Light, in bar and restaurant presence in December 2024. Michelob Ultra’s upsurge in popularity happened at a relatively quick pace; the brand has flourished by 15% since 2020. That equates to a 2% hold over the entire beer market in that time frame.

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A.I. investors shouldn’t swim upstream, but fish downstream: companies whose products rely on achieving high-quality results from somewhat ambiguous information will see increased productivity and higher profits. These sectors include professional services, healthcare, education, financial services, and creative services, which together account for between a third and a half of global GDP and have not seen much increased productivity from automation. AI can help lower costs, but how individual businesses incorporate lower costs into their strategies—and what they decide to do with the savings—will determine success. To put it bluntly, using cost savings to increase profits rather than grow revenue is a loser’s game. The companies that will benefit most rapidly are those whose strategies are already conditional on lowering costs.

With A.I., knowledge-intensive services will get cheaper, allowing consumers to buy more of them, while services that require person-to-person interaction will get more expensive, taking up a greater percentage of household spending. This points to obvious opportunities in both. But the big news is that most of the new value created by AI will be captured by consumers, who should see a wider variety of knowledge-intensive goods at reasonable prices, and wider and more affordable access to services like medical care, education, and advice.

There is nothing better than the beginning of a new wave, when the opportunities to envision, invent, and build world-changing companies leads to money, fame, and glory. But there is nothing more dangerous for investors and entrepreneurs than wishful thinking. The lessons learned from investing in tech over the last 50 years are not the right ones to apply now. The way to invest in AI is to think through the implications of knowledge workers becoming more efficient, to imagine what markets this efficiency unlocks, and to invest in those. For decades, the way to make money was to bet on what the new thing was. Now, you have to bet on the opportunities it opens up.

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There is a consistent doom-and-gloom forecast that within 18 months A.I. software will make human capabilities worthless. The far more significant crisis is precisely the opposite. Young people are already degrading their cognitive capabilities by outsourcing their minds to machines long before software is ready to steal their jobs.

Many recent articles have loudly proclaimed what most people were already thinking: Everybody is using AI to cheat their way through school. By allowing high school and college students to summon into existence any essay on any topic, large language models have created an existential crisis for teachers trying to evaluate their students’ ability to actually write, as opposed to their ability to prompt an LLM to do all their homework. Massive numbers of students are going to emerge from university with degrees, and into the workforce, who are essentially illiterate.

The demise of writing matters, because writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Students, scientists, and anyone else who lets AI do the writing for them will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.

As writing skills have declined, reading has declined even more. Most of our students are functionally illiterate. Achievement scores in literacy and numeracy are declining across the West for the first time in decades.

Americans are reading words all the time: email, texts, social media newsfeeds, subtitles on Netflix shows. But these words live in fragments that hardly require any kind of sustained focus; and, indeed, Americans in the digital age don’t seem interested in, or capable of, sitting with anything linguistically weightier than a tweet. The share of Americans overall who say they read books for leisure has declined by nearly 50 percent since the 2000s.

Even America’s smartest teenagers have essentially stopped reading anything longer than a paragraph. Students are matriculating into America’s most elite colleges without having ever read a full book. High schools have chunkified books to prepare students for the reading-comprehension sections of standardized exams.

Thinking benefits from a principle of “time under tension.” It is the ability to sit patiently with a group of barely connected or disconnected ideas that allows a thinker to braid them together into something that is combinatorially new.

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A.I. related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Data centers are eclipsing office construction spending and are coming under increased scrutiny for their impact on power grids and rising electricity prices.

The biggest medium-term risk I can think of for top heavy US equity markets: China’s Huawei and SMIC pierce the $6.3 trillion NVIDIA-TSMC-ASML moat by creating their own supernode computing clusters and deep-ultraviolet lithography machines of comparable quality.

Oracle’s stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI, an amount of money OpenAI doesn’t earn yet, to provide cloud computing facilities that Oracle hasn’t built yet, and which will require 4.5 GW of power (the equivalent of 2.25 Hoover Dams or four nuclear plants), as well as increased borrowing by Oracle whose debt to equity ratio is already 500%. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change.

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This is a fascinating look at how foreign households invest. I had no idea U.K. residents had such a low percentage of their personal investments in stocks, and the amount Japanese citizens hold in cash (which has provided no interest/return for decades) is incredible.

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Africa is enormous. These countries would all fit within Africa’s border:

A.I. In College, Sea Floors & Batting Stances

“College is just how well I can use ChatGPT at this point.”
“I think we are years — or months, probably — away from a world where nobody thinks using AI for homework is considered cheating.”
“It isn’t as if cheating is new. But now, as one student put it, ‘the ceiling has been blown off.’ Who could resist a tool that makes every assignment easier with seemingly no consequences?”
“Massive numbers of students are going to emerge from university with degrees, and into the workforce, who are essentially illiterate.”
“The humanities, and writing in particular, are quickly becoming an anachronistic art elective like basket-weaving.”
“Many teachers now seem to be in a state of despair.”
“Every time I talk to a colleague about this, the same thing comes up: retirement. When can I retire? When can I get out of this? That’s what we’re all thinking now.”

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The High-School Juniors With $70,000-a-Year Job Offers. Companies with shortages of skilled workers are looking to high school shop classes to recruit future hires.

Employers are increasingly recruiting high-schoolers in skilled trades due to worker shortages as baby boomers retire.
High schools are revitalizing shop classes and teaming up with businesses that offer students opportunities for part-time work and academic credit.
Welding students are getting job offers paying $50,000 and above, with no college debt.
More businesses are teaming up with high schools to enable students to work part-time, earning money as well as academic credit.
Employers say that as the skilled trades become more tech-infused, they anticipate doing even more recruitment at an early age, because they need workers who are comfortable programming and running computer diagnostics.

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“The hardest thing to teach a student—and the hardest thing to believe consistently—is that there is nothing ‘out there’ to go and get. There is no part, no career, no opportunity for which you should be searching and scrounging and coveting. All of the preparation is within, and you keep yourself mentally and physically fit; you remain generous with yourself and others; you stay deeply in study about your craft. Whatever is yours will then arrive.” — Marian Seldes

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AQR released an excellent paper this week discussing U.S. vs. foreign stock markets.

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Finland, the happiest country on earth, has things going for it that have been widely discussed in the past:

Universal healthcare and education
320 days of paid parental leave, split equally between mothers and fathers
Freedom of the press, trust in institutions, and a culture of low corruption
Prioritization of community engagement, including frequently dining in groups, participating in civic life, and trusting the government to mostly take care of its people.
And a national character trait they call sisu—roughly translating to grit, resilience, or quiet inner strength

But it also has two others that are less widely discussed:

There are 3.3 million saunas in Finland—roughly one for every 1.67 people. Finns drop by the sauna after work to relax, catch up with friends, or just sit in silence and sweat out the stress of modern life. There are even rules to encourage peaceful conversations – like no discussions about politics.
Finland also scores high on the “lost wallet test.” This is a study from 2019 in which Stanford researchers dropped almost 19000 wallets in 355 cities/40 countries, to get a measure for whether people are generally honest. Scandinavia scored at the top of the lost wallet test: the Finns, for example, returned 90% of the wallets. And that’s not even the number that’s important. The report suggests that a strong predictor of the happiness of a country is whether the majority of people believe others would return their wallet. Finns trust their fellow Finns to do the right thing.

What can we learn from them to be happier?

Find people to break bread with
Go outside.
Aim for “satisfied,” not euphoric.
Cultivate a belief that most people are basically kind and trustworthy.

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Humans still haven’t seen 99.999% of the deep sea floor. Bizarre creatures like vampire squid and blobfish make their home in the dark, cold, depths of the deep sea, but most of this watery realm remains a complete mystery. Maps created with tools like sonar can show the shape of the seafloor, but it’s much harder to send cameras down beyond 200 meters, or more than 656 feet, where sunlight begins to fade rapidly and the waters turn cold and dark. This is the region of the ocean that’s considered “deep.”

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The 18 Degrees That Turned Aaron Judge Into the Next Babe Ruth. On May 5 of last season, Judge was mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. So when he stepped to the plate for the first time, he decided to try something different. Up to that point, Judge had always used an open batting stance, which angled his left foot toward the third baseman. Against Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal that afternoon, Judge moved the placement of his front leg ever so slightly back toward the pitcher. He promptly blasted a home run into the right-center field bleachers, followed by a booming double a few innings later. The change to Judge’s setup was almost imperceptible at first, but it had an unimaginable impact: In the year since, he has put together one of the greatest stretches of hitting that baseball has ever seen.

Marriage, Scammers & Losing It On Live TV

Losing It on Live TV. Lorne Michaels reportedly dislikes when “Saturday Night Live” cast members break character. But over 50 seasons, it’s become one of the show’s signature moves — one that usually delights the audience.

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A common narrative is that less people are getting married, and the number of births is declining because more college educated women are choosing their jobs over starting a family. In reality, the graph below shows it’s the opposite. The married rates for college educated women have held steady, while the number of non-college educated married women has plummeted.

The reason: Men without degrees have seen their economic prospects decline over the past few decades. These financial troubles have led to lower marriage rates for men — and for women without four-year degrees (even as these women have seen their incomes rise). In other words: a “good” man has become harder to find, at least for women with less than a four-year degree. So, they’re getting married less.

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Scammers are seen as faceless, evil people who make Aussie lives a living hell. We decided to track down a scammer, and this is how and why he does it. He worked alongside hundreds of others aiming to steal money in a ‘pig butchering’ romance scam in a sophisticated operation designed to part unsuspecting victims from their cash. This type of scam devastates thousands of Aussies a year.

Seen below, scammers will queue up “the model” to speak to the victims on video calls.

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The Endowment Effect is sneaky. It whispers, “Hold on. This is yours. It’s special.” But the truth is, nothing is special just because you own it. A bad stock doesn’t become good because it’s in your portfolio. A house isn’t worth more because you have memories in it. How do we fight the Endowment Effect?

Ask: If I didn’t own this, would I buy it today? If the answer is no, it might be time to let go.
Detach from the purchase price. The stock doesn’t know what price you bought it at.
Think like an outsider. What advice would you give a friend in your position?
Set clear exit rules. Have a plan for when to exit an investment before you even enter.
Seek a devil’s advocate. Have someone play devil’s advocate to convince you out of your decision to hold.

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The graph below shows wealth concentration/inequality among top the 10% in the OECD member countries. The United States is unlike anywhere else in the world:

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How many decades since 1900 has the United States stock market outperformed the rest of the world? Only 3:

1900’s
1910’s
2010’s

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America dominates the rest of the world in venture capital (VC) investments:

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Perhaps the single greatest divergence in equity markets has been the continued outperformance of US versus international equities—and thus the widening of the valuation gap between the US and the rest of the world. To try and determine why, we regressed value against the other common risk factors for the top 1,000 stocks globally. By far the most significant difference, explaining about half the valuation gap, is the domicile of listing. US-listed stocks are substantially more expensive than internationally listed stocks for no reason other than the place of listing.

Were a larger percentage of the valuation gap explained by fundamentals; we’d expect such a gap to persist. But given that the valuation gap is primarily explained simply by the location of listing, we think there’s a strong reason to expect a convergence—and therefore to favor international over US-listed stocks, despite their terrible relative performance over the past decade.

Figure 1: Premium of US vs. International Equity Valuations (5-Year Average, P/B)