Productivity, Jobs, Rates & Zyn Pouches

Here’s a surprising truth it took me ages to grasp: by far the best way to spend more of your life doing meaningful, rewarding and difference-making things is to really feel the deep sense in which you don’t need to do any of that stuff at all.

At public events, people sometimes ask what advice I’d give my fourteen, sixteen or eighteen-year-old self – which is a ticklish question, partly since I’m sure my teenage self would have scoffed at being lectured at by the late-forties version. And he might have been right to do so; I think you probably have to just go through a certain amount of experience, in order to learn about life, instead of having wisdom dispensed by your elders.

Still, the honest answer is that I’d say something like this: “You do realise you don’t absolutely have to do any of this, right – the good grades, the praiseworthy accomplishments, ‘fulfilling your potential’ and all the rest? It’s all great, and it matters, but do you understand that it doesn’t matter matter? That the sky won’t fall in if you chill out a bit, and that people who don’t always ‘do their best’ or ‘fulfill their potential’ are allowed to enjoy life, too?”

The spiritual teacher Michael Singer says somewhere that the basic stance most of us take toward the world is that we try to use life to make ourselves feel OK. And this is certainly true of the type psychologists label ‘insecure overachievers’, who often accomplish plenty of impressive things, but who do so, deep down, because we don’t believe we’d have earned the right to feel good about ourselves, or to relax into life, if we didn’t.

It’s a soul-crushing way to live, not least because it turns each success into a new source of oppression, since now that’s the minimum standard you feel obliged to meet next time. A hugely successful author once told me he knew something was amiss when the experience of reaching the upper echelons of the bestseller list, previously a cause of excited disbelief, instead brought only relief that he hadn’t failed to replicate his prior achievement.

Most productivity advice, I think, caters to people mired in this mindset. It promises ways to help you take so much action, so efficiently, that you might one day get to feel good about yourself at last. Which isn’t going to work – because the real problem isn’t that you haven’t yet done enough things, or got good enough at doing them. The real problem is the fact that for whatever combination of reasons in your childhood, culture or genes, your sense of self-worth and psychological safety got tethered to your productivity or accomplishments in the first place.

But there exists another, very different sort of productive action: the kind you take not because you feel you have to, in order to feel OK, but precisely because you understand that you don’t have to – because you already feel basically OK about yourself, so now of course you want to take action, because action is how you express your enjoyment in being alive, being good at a few things, and being able to use your talents to make some kind of difference in the world, alongside other people.

One of the most important consequences of all this, for me, has been the realisation that when you begin to outgrow action-from-insecurity, you don’t have to give up on being ambitious. On the contrary: you get to be much more effectively and enjoyably ambitious, if that’s the way you’re inclined.

I’ve long been allergic to the notion, prevalent in self-help circles, that if you truly managed to liberate yourself from your issues, you’d ideally spend your days just sort of passively floating around, smiling at everyone, maybe attending the occasional yoga retreat, but not much more. “The more I heal, the less ambitious I become” is a phrase I’ve encountered multiple times online in recent months. And yes, sure, if your ambition was only ever a function of anxiety, becoming less ambitious would be an excellent development. Then again, the desire to create remarkable outcomes in your creative work, relationships or community – or even just in your bank balance – might just be an authentic part of who you are, once the clouds of insecurity begin to clear.

So you don’t need to choose between peace of mind and the thrill of pursuing ambitious goals. You just need to understand those goals less as vehicles to get you to a future place of sanity and good feeling, and more as things that unfold from an existing place of sanity and good feeling. (Besides, I’ve got to believe that ambition pursued in this spirit is far likelier to make a positive difference in the world.)

Obviously, if you’re deeply stuck on insecure-overachiever mode, merely reading about the alternative in a newsletter isn’t going to solve everything. Nor do I mean to suggest that every task becomes an undiluted joy when you re-frame action in this way – or that there aren’t plenty of things you “need to do” for reasons other than feeling OK about yourself, such as keeping food on the table.

But it can be strikingly liberating just to begin, however gingerly, to experiment with the idea that, actually, you could just do the minimum. You really could. You could not try to impress, or be extraordinary, or do your best, or fulfill your potential (whatever that even means). And you would still be fully entitled to a relaxed and enjoyable life.

And then you might begin to feel, in that newly peaceful state of mind, the stirrings of a different kind of action: one that’s no less energetic or productive or effective; far more alive; and much, much easier to enjoy.

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I went into my conversations with college career executives expecting to hear about AI replacing work. What I heard instead is that AI is transforming everything around work. The transition from college to the workforce is fully drenched in artificial intelligence. AI is automating homework, obliterating the meaning of much testing, disrupting the labor-market signal of college achievement and grades, distorting the job hunt by normalizing 500+ annual applications per person, turning first-round interviews into creepy surveillance experiences or straight-up conversations with robots, and, oh, after all that, maybe kinda beginning to saw off the bottom of the corporate ladder by automating some entry-level jobs during a period of economic uncertainty. This really is a hard time to be a young person.

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Even if Trump’s tactics improbably succeed in changing Jerome Powell’s mind, they would change only one vote out of 12 on the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC’s decision at its June 18 meeting to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged was unanimous. Furthermore, seven of the 19 officials who are eligible for the 12 voting positions predicted there will be no rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, up from four in March.

Surely, you might say, the FOMC would never go against its chair if he altered his position on rates? If that were to happen it would not be unprecedented. In June 1978, Miller was in the minority as the full FOMC voted to raise rates.

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U.S. shipments of Zyn pouches rose 177% from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2025.

Happiness, Single Women & Perspective Before Dying

Raising Vikings: Danish Secrets To Raising Happy Children. After 12 years of living in Denmark, ranked as the second happiest country on earth, a mother wrote about what she learned living there:

  • Denmark’s social rule of janteloven – the idea that “you’re no better than anyone else” – keeps everyone grounded. Its education system is rooted in equality, with children calling teachers by their first names and collaboration prioritised over competition. There’s a flat hierarchical structure and high taxes help redistribute wealth – not a terrible plan since more equal societies are happier and healthier.
  • Danes trust their neighbours, institutions and even strangers, with 74% believing “most people can be trusted”. So, babies are left to nap outside in their prams, children roam freely and people sell secondhand clothes from “trust stands” outside their homes.
  • The Danes are masters of the work-life balance, with a 37-hour work week as standard and OECD figures showing that the average Dane puts in only 33 hours a week.  The result? Lower stress and higher productivity. 
  • Friluftsliv, or “open-air life”, is deeply ingrained in ­Nordic culture and spending time in nature has been shown to reduce stress. 
  • One of the greatest gifts from our Danish years is the habit of eating together. This is non-­negotiable – TV off, phones away and everyone at the table for a home-cooked meal, proven to improve mental and physical health as well as our relationships. Thanks to a short working week, a daily family dinner is entirely possible in Denmark and tends to be eaten early, something our metabolism and gut health apparently thank us for.
  • Nearly half of Danes volunteer, contributing to their communities through clubs, events and schools.  If Denmark taught me anything, it’s that small acts of service build stronger communities.
  • The Danish art of cosines meant slowing down, switching off and sharing quality time in relaxed surroundings (accepting that the best evenings don’t involve wifi). Danes priorities daily moments of joy.
  • Vikings are allowed to take risks, learn from mistakes and develop independence early on. From two-year-olds dressing themselves to eight-year-olds cycling to school alone, there’s a collective confidence in giving children freedom in Denmark, which helps them flourish. A phrase beloved by my children’s teachers was that adults should “sit on their hands” – ie do nothing and let ­children work things out for themselves.
  • Danish minimalism goes beyond design; it’s a way of life. From clothes to home decor, the approach taught me the beauty of having fewer things, of higher ­quality.

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But a good question to ask is, What Exactly Do Country Happiness Rankings Measure? For the eighth year in a row, Finland tops the “happiness” league tables — but that doesn’t mean its citizens are feeling the joy.

The country ranking itself stems from the the “life evaluation” metric: “Please imagine a ladder with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. The top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time?”

Considering this, the most prominent factor that determines whether citizens are “happy” might have more to do with how satisfied they are with their immediate surroundings, rather than how they’re feeling.

While the World Happiness Report takes into account life satisfaction, it lacks one crucial joy-determining factor: emotions. The 2024 Gallup Global Emotions Report focused on respondents’ positive and negative emotion; including how often people laugh, smile, or learn something new, as well as how often they feel pain, stress, or anger (the “Positive Emotions Ranking” column below):

Finland ranked in 25th place overall for feeling positive emotions specifically, and until recently, had one of the highest suicide rates in the world. What the happiness ranking could speak to, then, is the Finnish custom of “sisu,” or inner strength, which means people rarely complain about their problems… or, for that matter, place themselves low on the life ladder.

Another factor contributing to life satisfaction that the report highlighted was meal sharing. The growing number of people eating alone in the United States — in 2023, about 1 in 4 Americans reported eating all their meals alone the day before, up 53% from two decades prior — was said to have contributed to a decline in national well-being, as the US ranked 24th overall in the report, the lowest position it’s ever held.

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American women have never been this resigned to staying single and they’re giving up on marriage. They are responding to major demographic shifts, including huge and growing gender gaps in economic and educational attainment, political affiliation and beliefs about what a family should look like. More women than men are attending college, buying houses and focusing on their friendships and careers over dating and marriage. 

Women throughout history rarely questioned whether finding and securing a romantic partner should be a primary goal of adulthood. This seems to be changing. Over half of single women say they believe they are happier than their married counterparts. A rise in earning power and a decline in the social stigma for being single has allowed more women to be choosy. They would rather be alone than with a man who holds them back. The focus has shifted toward self-improvement, friendship and the ability to find happiness on their own. 

48% of women say that being married is not too or not at all important for a fulfilling life, up from 31% in 2019. Marriage rates for both men and women are in decline, in part owing to less pressure to pair off and higher expectations for a would-be match. Dating apps make people feel like there might always be a better option. They view looking for a marriage partner the same way that you view looking for a job candidate.

The challenges of finding a romantic partner have been made more complicated by a growing divide in education and career prospects between men and women. 47% of American women ages 25-34 have a bachelor’s degree, compared with 37% of men. A bachelor’s degree increases net lifetime earnings by an estimated $1 million. Women are doing comparatively well when it comes to education and their early years in the labor force, and men are doing comparatively badly. That creates a mismatch, because people prefer to date in terms of comparable education or income.

Men’s economic struggles seem to be having the biggest effect on women without a college degree, whose marriage rates by age 45 have plummeted from 79% to 52% for those born between 1930 and 1980. Young men without a degree are struggling so much as a group that there simply aren’t enough with steady jobs and earnings for non-college women to date.

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Nine months ago, Jonathan Clements shared with readers that he’d been diagnosed with an incurable form of cancer. It was devastating news, especially for longtime readers, many of whom regard Jonathan not only as a journalist but also a friend. I count myself among them, so I was grateful that Jonathan agreed to sit for an interview to share more about his background, his early years and his current thinking. 

What were some of your most popular articles at the Journal? “Anything with a list, anything that mentioned my kids, and anything on the topic of money and happiness. “

What’s changed since those days? “Go back to the late 1980s and through the 1990s, all the focus was on investing, how to build a portfolio, what’s the expected return, yada yada yada. Since then, people have realized that there’s a limit to how much we can optimize a portfolio. Instead, there’s a lot of focus on other issues, like helping people buy the right-size home, making sure they have all their estate-planning documents, making sure they have the right insurance policies, making sure they claim Social Security at the right age, and so on. There has been more focus on the  psychological aspects of managing money. And finally, there’s now a focus on helping people figure out what money means to them.”

Do you remember your final article at the Journal? “When I left in 2008, I wrote a piece about three ways that money can help happiness.  One, money can give you a sense of financial security. Two, it can allow you to spend your days doing what you love. And three, it can allow you to have special times with friends and family. I believe that those are the three ingredients for not only a happy financial life, but also a happy life—period. It’s certainly the three things that I’m focused on.”

Has your thinking changed about anything since your diagnosis? “In the last couple of years, I’ve become better about giving money to my kids and funding my grandchildren’s 529 plans. In retrospect, I think I should have started earlier and could have been more generous, because it’s clear to me that I’d never have been able to spend all this money I’ve accumulated, even if I did live to a ripe old age. If you’re pretty sure that your kids have good financial habits, and you’re not going to undermine their ambitions or send them on some wayward path, by all means give them money now. Why have them live with unnecessary financial anxiety? Why not make them feel a little more financially secure? I really believe that’s one of the greatest gifts that we can give to family members, this sense of financial security.”

In your writing, you’ve shared that you aren’t feeling negative emotions about your diagnosis. In fact, you wrote that your first reaction was, “I’m okay with this.” Can you say more about that? “I feel like I’ve been very fortunate. It’s not that bad things haven’t happened in my life. They have. But I’ve been able to spend my life doing what I love. I have a close-knit family, and I’ve largely been free of financial worry.  All in all, I feel like I’ve managed to get a whole lot out of my life.”

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Michael Easter (author of The Comfort Crisis and Scarcity Brain) interviewed Brett McKay who has an extremely popular podcast called the “Art Of Manliness” that I’ve been listening to for many years. Brett is one of the best at interviewing authors about their new books, helping me decide if I want to read them. It was strange to hear someone asking Brett the questions. Some random thoughts from their conversation.

What’s the dumbest health trend you’ve noticed recently? Blue-light-blocking glasses. They’re useless—the research doesn’t support significant circadian disruption from blue light.

You’ve experimented extensively with health trends. What’s something you’ve changed your mind about? Low-carb diets. I got into low-carb in early days. And then I learned, wait, there’s nothing magic about low carb. You just eat fewer calories typically when you’re on low carb. But you can do that with any diet.

You’ve talked to a ton of parenting experts on podcasts. What’s your best parenting advice? Parent like a video game. In video games, if you mess up you just start from the beginning—it’s not a big deal. So if your kid makes a mistake, treat it like restarting a game—tell them not to do that again and move on. No big deal. Also, something I appreciate more and more is that kids are their own people. You can guide them, create a supportive environment, but you can’t control their personalities or outcomes. You see families where all the kids are parented the same way, but they all end up different. Why’s that? Because people are different. So do your best, love them, and let them be themselves.

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Married men are more than three times as likely to be obese as unmarried men. Though women experience weight gain in wedlock, it is on par with unmarried women.

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The U.S. is making progress against one of its most devastating public-health threats: drug overdoses.The decline is at least in part due to a drop in opioid use. A 2022 report found that opioid-use disorder increased from 2010 to 2014, then stabilized and slightly declined each year thereafter. Another reason is because the most vulnerable people have died and others have adapted. Many fentanyl users are now smoking the drug instead of injecting it, and some research shows that smoking fentanyl could come with lower risk of overdose, infections and other complications. 

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Market timing is hard because, even if you get out at an opportune time, you have to nail the landing and get back in. Few people can do both. In fact, getting the first leg of the parlay right often makes it even harder to get back in because you become so attached to the loving arms of cash. The psychology of market timing becomes even more challenging when you add politics to the mix.

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A popular investment strategy being sold to investors today is the idea of getting limited upside annually on your stocks in exchange for limiting the downside. AQR discussed these in their recent article: Rebuffed: A Closer Look At Options-Based Strategies.

At the heart of the strategies examined are put options.  The way puts work is straightforward: the investor pays some amount (the option premium) to protect themselves from a specific decline in a specific asset’s price over a specific period. There’s one wrinkle though: when it comes to buying puts, the price of admission is generally higher than the benefit.

let’s say an investor is less concerned with long-term returns, and more concerned with shorter-term drawdowns. Surely options-based strategies should at least help there, since a put option is literally tailor-made for this task. 

Nope.

Puts are designed for very specific outcomes – they protect against a specific price level for a specific length of time. If the duration of the draw-down doesn’t align with the maturity of the option, the hoped-for protection won’t be there.  This is why a strategy that buys 5% out-of-the-money puts every month can have a drawdown that’s worse than 5% – markets might fall by 4% in one month, and by another 4% the next so the options you paid for never pay you.  And this is a reason 81% of the funds in Exhibit 3 weren’t able to deliver on the seemingly easy goal of downside protection (again, compared to an applicable mix of equities plus T-bills).