If you’re regularly having arguments with well-informed people of goodwill, you will probably ‘lose’ half of them–changing your mind based on what you’ve learned. If you’re not changing your mind, it’s likely you’re not actually having an argument (or you’re hanging out with the wrong people.) While it can be fun to change someone else’s position, it’s also a gift to learn enough to change ours.
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Stocks, on average through every bear market since the inception of the S&P 500 in 1957, bottom in price a full 9 months before the earnings do. This is why stocks are referred to as an anticipatory vehicle. By the time earnings are reaching their cycle low, stocks have already been rallying for three quarters of a year in advance of that low.
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In an era when a select group of U.S. tech behemoths have dominated market returns, investors are growing increasingly wary of the concentration risk they pose. With asset owners now exploring various avenues to diversify their equity allocations, U.S. small-cap stocks have emerged as more than just a diversification tool—they represent a compelling investment opportunity. In fact, the “Magnificent 7’s” dominance have driven small-cap stocks to trade at a historically wide valuation discount to large-caps. The potential for mean reversion to narrow this valuation gap creates an opportunity for small caps to outperform the narrowly focused large-cap indices over the next decade.
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About 70% of Nevada gaming revenue is from slot machines and the majority of players are locals. In 2024, Nevada casino games won $15.6 billion from players with $10.5 billion coming from slot machines. It’s a jarring figure when put into perspective with other forms of entertainment (here’s a comparison: the entire US box office in 2024 was $8.5 billion).
Slot machines are the new crack cocaine of high-tech gambling. The most addicted players don’t even play to win. Rather, they play to be in a trancelike state called the “machine zone” where daily worries, social demands, and even bodily awareness fade away.
Meanwhile, the North Star metric for casinos is maximizing the players “time on device” by designing technology with a deep understanding of human psychology. If this all sound somewhat familiar, it’s because the exact same playbook has been used to make our smartphone apps as addictive as possible.
Let’s walk through the details……
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- Recency bias – When you give more weight or importance to recent events.
- Loss aversion – The most important concept in finance. Losses hurt twice as bad as gains feel good.
- Confirmation bias – Seeking opinions or data that agree with one’s pre-existing beliefs.
- Anchoring – When a default starting point influences your conclusions.
- Hindsight Bias – The assumption that the past was easier to foresee than it actually was.
- Endowment Bias – When you place a higher value on something you possess.
- Gambler’s Fallacy – When you see patterns where none exist in sequences of random events.
- Illusion Of Control – The belief that you have control over uncontrollable outcomes.
- Sunk Cost Fallacy – When your decisions are determined by investments that have already been made.
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Studies show that decision makers exhibit a “memory premium:” they tend to things they can remember vs. ones they can’t, even when the latter are objectively better. The memory premium is associative, subject to interference and repetition effects, and decays over time. Even as decision makers gain familiarity with the environment, the memory premium remains economically large. The ease with which past experiences come to mind plays an important role in shaping choice behavior.
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How American’s life expectancy compares to 11 other major developed countries:
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When you go to the doctor, you’re probably the one answering most of the questions. Yet it’s essential to make sure you’re asking plenty of your own. We need to get someone to fund a bazillion-dollar PSA to tell people to be bolder when they talk to their doctors. I see this over and over again: People aren’t asking any questions, never mind the right ones. We asked experts to share the questions you should ask your doctor to help you get well or stay that way:
- “What are my treatment options, and how do they compare?”
- “If this were your family member, what would you do?”
- “What should I do if my symptoms get worse or don’t improve?”
- “How many people with my condition have you treated?”
- “Are there any new treatments, clinical trials, or emerging research that apply to my condition?”
- “What screenings should I get?”
- “What vitamins and supplements might be helpful?”
- “When can I expect my test results, and how will I receive them?”
- “Can you explain that in a way that’s easier to understand?”
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In the spring of 2023, a London banker-turned-bookmaker reached out to a few contacts with an audacious request: Can you help me take down the Texas lottery? Bernard Marantelli had a plan in mind. He and his partners would buy nearly every possible number in a coming drawing. There were 25.8 million potential number combinations. The tickets were $1 apiece. The jackpot was heading to $95 million. If nobody else also picked the winning numbers, the profit would be nearly $60 million.
Marantelli flew to the U.S. with a few trusted lieutenants. They set up shop in a defunct dentist’s office, a warehouse and two other spots in Texas. The crew worked out a way to get official ticket-printing terminals. Trucks hauled in dozens of them and reams of paper. Over three days, the machines—manned by a disparate bunch of associates and some of their children—screeched away nearly around the clock, spitting out 100 or more tickets every second. Texas politicians later likened the operation to a sweatshop.
Trying to pull off the gambit required deep pockets and a knack for staying under the radar—both hallmarks of the secretive Tasmanian gambler who bankrolled the operation. Born Zeljko Ranogajec, he was nicknamed “the Joker” for his ability to pull off capers at far-flung casinos and racetracks. Adding to his mystique, he changed his name to John Wilson several decades ago. Among some associates, though, he still goes by Zeljko, or Z.
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Tuna Thoughts 