The Disease Of More & Short-Term Thinking

The “disease of more” was a phrase coined by National Basketball Association (NBA) coach Pat Riley to describe how, following a successful season, players can become entitled and want more of everything, including money, playing time, and media attention, which starts the onset of the team’s demise.

Needless to say, it’s not just NBA players that are affected by wanting more. Everyone wants more of everything, more so than ever before. Never in human history has there been such an overwhelming abundance of food, clothing, and material goods. Beyond necessities, consumer goods of all kinds—electronics, furniture, and household items are more accessible and affordable than ever, filling stores and warehouses to the brim.

In addition to the explosion of physical goods, the world now overflows with the non-physical. The digital age has brought an endless supply of information, entertainment and convenience.

Suppose you invented an incredible new passenger plane that reduced aviation fuel consumption by 50%, and every airliner worldwide adopted your aircraft. In that scenario, it’s a natural assumption to think that aviation fuel across the globe would reduce dramatically and be good for the environment. However, the opposite is true, and fuel consumption would increase because flying has become more efficient, which means more flights, lower prices and more demand for flying. This is known as the Jevons paradox.

Instead of digital communication making our lives easier with how we communicate with friends and family in a similar way to the workplace, the reduction of friction has made us do more of it than ever before to the point where it has become all-consuming. As things become easier — we just do more of it, and in spades. It’s been an evolution of deliberate and reflective communication to text speak, forwarding cat videos and memes.

News has become like a drug. We hear what is going on instantly all of the time. It becomes impossible to avoid. Every hour on the hour, the radio stations give us our fix. Social media was originally meant for discovering what your friends and family were doing, and now it’s just another news outlet keeping us transfixed.

In a roundabout way, we all fall into the chronic busyness category. Even if we’re not running around with packed diaries and overflowing work schedules, we’re all swamped with communication, news, things to buy, pings, breaking news alerts, and vibrations. We’re overloading our nervous system, which means we don’t have time to think, reflect, and consider. Being bored is invaluable thinking time to ponder what to do or change about your life.

One of our deepest evolutionary instincts—believing that more is always better—no longer serves us. Our ancestors struggled with scarcity; we struggle with excess. The way forward isn’t more, it’s less. Less news, less noise, less busyness, less mindless communication, fewer endless choices. More slowness, more presence, more clarity.

I love the title of a book by a financial market analyst named Walter Deemer: “When the Time Comes to Buy, You Won’t Want To.” The negative developments that make for the greatest price declines are terrifying, and they discourage buying. But, when unfavorable developments are raining down, that’s often the best time to step up.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, there are themes that rhyme throughout history. For that reason, just as I recycled the title of my post-Lehman (Sept 2008) bankruptcy memo for this one, I’ll also borrow its closing paragraph: Everyone was happy to buy 18-24-36 months ago, when the horizon was cloudless and asset prices were sky-high. Now, with heretofore unimaginable risks on the table and priced in, it’s appropriate to sniff around for bargains: the babies that are being thrown out with the bath water. 

_______________________

Measures of retirement preparedness often suggest a substantial share of U.S. households are not on track to maintain their standard of living in retirement (financially). And many retirees report regret for not saving enough. Yet, when asked about their life satisfaction, the overwhelming majority (92%) of retired households say that they are “very satisfied” or “moderately satisfied.” In fact, gerontologists and psychologists have found a weak correlation between older Americans’ financial circumstances and retirement satisfaction.

_________________________

I think the thing that doesn’t get talked about is that no one wants to admit they’re a short-term thinker. We fool ourselves into believing we’re committed to something for the long haul, but we’ve been trained since childhood to be tactical, to chase the short-term win, to have a short attention span.

We emphasize who just scored a goal in soccer instead of asking, Does this kid have perseverance? Do they have good sportsmanship? Those qualities are much more useful for who they will become. But instead, we reward the kid who cheated or played dirty to score a goal. And that sticks with us.

I don’t judge people based on job interviews. That’s a false proxy — unless I’m hiring a talk show host, being good at a job interview doesn’t matter. Shielding ourselves from false proxies is really hard. Some people just can’t do it. They need immediate feedback, they need to know what’s happening right now.

__________________________

Despite the existence of an arsenal of medications that target the neurotransmitters in the brain thought to be responsible for mood disorders, about 30% of individuals with major depressive disorder remain treatment-resistant. This points to other possible factors that may contribute to the condition.

Research to date has implicated impaired energy metabolism as a potential culprit, as the brain requires enormous amounts of energy to function normally. This, in turn, would suggest that interventions known to boost cellular energy production might offer some relief for those suffering from depression, and attention has turned to one such supplement in particular: creatine. Well known for its role in muscular energetics, might creatine have additional benefits in the treatment of depression?

__________________________

Where people are happiest in the Americas, from the 2025 World Happiness Report.

Where people are happiest in Europe, from the 2025 World Happiness Report.

_____________________________

The odds of getting audited by the IRS are low:

_________________________

America Has Never Been Wealthier. Why Doesn’t Feel That Way? A 10 percent boost to the middle and especially higher incomes is money that feels real, like you can do something with it. For someone making $100,000, that means a $10,000 raise. But a 10 percent increase at the bottom, perhaps to an hourly wage of $16.50 from $15, means you’re still living hand-to-mouth. If we define someone as living paycheck to paycheck if they either say they do not have three months of emergency savings or say they cannot afford a $2,000 emergency expense, then 59 percent of American adults are “living paycheck to paycheck.

___________________________

1Hawaii13.9%
2New York13.6%
3Vermont11.5%
4California11.0%
5Maine10.6%
6New Jersey10.3%
7Illinois10.2%
8Rhode Island10.1%
9Maryland10.0%
10Connecticut9.9%
11Minnesota9.7%
12New Mexico9.6%
13Massachusetts9.6%
14Utah9.5%
15Ohio9.4%
16Kansas9.3%
17Iowa9.2%
18Indiana9.1%
19Mississippi9.1%
20Oregon9.1%
21Louisiana8.9%
22Kentucky8.9%
23Virginia8.9%
24West Virginia8.9%
25Nebraska8.8%
26Colorado8.7%
27Nevada8.6%
28Washington8.6%
29Arkansas8.6%
30Pennsylvania8.6%
31Georgia8.5%
32Wisconsin8.3%
33Michigan8.3%
34Arizona8.2%
35North Carolina8.2%
36South Carolina8.2%
37Alabama8.0%
38Montana7.9%
39Missouri7.8%
40Texas7.8%
41Idaho7.5%
42Oklahoma7.0%
43North Dakota6.6%
44Delaware6.5%
45Florida6.5%
46South Dakota6.5%
47Tennessee6.4%
48New Hampshire5.9%
49Wyoming5.8%
50Alaska4.9%

Money, Happiness & Cancer

William Vanderbilt was the son of the great Cornelius Vanderbilt. When his father died, Cornelius was the richest person on the planet. Billy took his father’s wealth and almost immediately doubled it with some shrewd business maneuvers (in today’s terms, imagine Elon Musk’s son inheriting $500 billion when he dies and then investing it and quickly doubling it to $1 trillion). Being the richest rich person didn’t make William Vanderbilt any happier:

“The sheer magnitude of his fortune, he told Chauncey Depew, gave him no advantages over men of moderate wealth. “I have my house, my pictures and my horses, and so do they. I can have a steam yacht if I want to, but it would give me no pleasure, and I don’t care for it.” On another occasion he spoke of a neighbor saying, “He isn’t worth a hundredth part as much as I am, but he has more of the real pleasures of life than I have. His house is as comfortable as mine, even if it didn’t cost so much; his team is about as good as mine; his opera box is next to mine; his health is better than mine, and he will probably outlive me. And he can trust his friends.”

Being the richest person in the world brought him, he said, nothing but anxiety.

The founder of MVMT recently sold his company for $100 million at age 29. He recently posted on Reddit how two years after selling his company he’s lonelier than ever and deeply depressed. Money dramatically improves everyone’s lives up until the point they can relax and be content. After that, assuming they are in moderately good health, almost all happiness comes internally.

________________________________

The largest medical A.I. randomized controlled trial yet performed, enrolling >100,000 women undergoing mammography screening, was published today. The use of A.I. led to 29% higher detection of cancer, no increase of false positives, and reduced workload compared with radiologists without A.I.

________________________________

The Drug Industry Is Having Its Own DeepSeek Moment. It isn’t just artificial intelligence—Chinese biotechs are now developing drugs faster and cheaper than their U.S. counterparts. Many top scientists trained in the U.S. have returned to China over the past decade, fueling the emergence of biotech hubs around Shanghai. And just as DeepSeek built a formidable chatbot—allegedly on a lean budget with limited access to semiconductors—Chinese biotech companies are also scrappier, capitalizing on a highly skilled, lower-cost workforce that can move faster. Additionally, companies can conduct clinical trials at a fraction of what they would cost in the U.S., while recent changes in the Chinese regulatory system have streamlined and accelerated the approval process to get a study started.

_____________________________

A new study by Stanford University researchers finds that the average online sportsbook customer expects a gain of 0.3 cent for every dollar wagered. In reality, sports bettors lose an average of 7.5 cents per dollar wagered, reflecting widespread overoptimism about financial returns. We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better. Parlay bettors do so much worse than single-outcome bettors and are so much more overconfident in their chances that they likely account for most of the excessive optimism in the overall sample.

_______________________________

Only 13% of U.S. imports come from China:

_____________________________

European stocks have under-performed U.S. stocks in 12 of the last 15 years. However, the pedestrian pace of the European economy and markets could be a virtue for investors in the years ahead. Europe suffers from none of the over-building excesses that haunt the Chinese economy. European equity markets have none of the bubbly valuations that pose a threat to U.S. stocks. A starting point of a weak euro and monetary easing, combined with a high savings rate and fiscal capacity has the potential to boost both economic growth and dollar-denominated returns on European equities. Attractive dividend yields can allow European equities play a respectable role in generating income. Moreover, political pressure from within Europe, along with the threat of tariffs from the United States, could motivate bolder action from European policymakers in both deregulation and fiscal stimulus, triggering greater economic momentum. The strongest case for European equities is simply a value case. At the end of January, the MSCI Europe ex-UK had a forward P/E of 14.7 times compared to 21.8 times for the S&P500, a discount that is more than two standard deviations greater than its average over the past 20 years. It also sported a dividend yield of 3.3% compared to 1.3% for the S&P500.

_______________________________

The silver market is heading into a perfect storm. Even in our most conservative case, holding everything but solar demand constant, we’re looking at potential deficits of 100-200 million ounces annually for the next decade. Solar panels now consume one in four ounces of silver mined globally. Even at current solar installation rates – before factoring in any AI-driven surge in energy demand – we’re looking at a supply-demand gap as large as the entire elastic (price-sensitive) portion of silver supply. Solar demand is structurally inelastic – panel manufacturers will buy silver at almost any price because it represents a tiny fraction of total costs but is essential to functionality. The sheer scale of the energy transition dwarfs anything in silver’s industrial history – we’re talking about rebuilding the entire global energy infrastructure.