Time, Work, Beer & A.I.

Does Time Seem To Be Flying By? There Are Ways To Slow It Down. Exposure to variety in your life creates memories, which in turn makes time seem to pass slower because there is more to look back on. For children, fresh experiences and “firsts” are a natural part of everyday life — losing that first tooth, first day of school, first bicycle. This constant stream of new occurrences stretches the passage of time in a young mind.

Older adults, on the other hand, often slip into predictable patterns where days differ only by the calendar date. With scant new memories being formed between existing time markers like birthdays and holidays, Christmas seems to roll around quicker each year. 

So as simple as it sounds, if you want time to slow down, the key is to intentionally introduce more novel experiences into your daily routine. Researchers divide these into two categories:

Distinct novelty. Taking a trip to somewhere you have never been fires a whole different system in your mind that preserves all the details like a high-resolution photo, creating vivid memories you recall for years to come. Your brain’s reaction is, “This looks important. I’d better save all of this!”

Common novelty. You decide to try a different restaurant in your neighborhood instead of the ones you normally frequent. It’s new but related to something you already know, so the impression is not particularly powerful.

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Typically, what you find in highly successful people is that an addiction to work is, in fact, based on an inchoate belief that love from others—including spouses, parents, and friends—can be earned only through constant toil and exceptional merit.

Why might someone fall prey to such an erroneous belief? It could be the way you were raised. Workaholic parents tend to have workaholic kids. If you grow up seeing adulthood modeled by people who work all hours and are rarely home, you can be forgiven for regarding this as appropriate behavior for a responsible spouse and parent. This is at least partly the same mechanism behind the fact that you are much likelier to become an alcoholic if you were raised by one.

Researchers have also shown that when parents express love for a child in a conditional way based on the child’s behavior, that person is likely to grow up feeling that they deserve love only through good conduct and hard work. This might sound as though I’m describing terrible parents, but I don’t mean to do so at all; well-intentioned parental encouragement can be heard by a child as a message about their worthiness.

In the workaholic’s case, it might look like this: Your parents wanted you to succeed in school and in life, so they gave you the most love and attention when you got good report cards, won at sports, or earned the top spot in the orchestra. You were a bright kid, and put two and two together: I am extra lovable when I earn accolades. In my experience, this describes the childhood of a lot of people who strove to be special to gain their parents’ attention, and who carry this behavior into adulthood by trying to earn the love of others through compulsive work.

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Michelob Ultra has become king of the hill among beer brands. By topping the sales by volume charts for 2025, it has ousted Modelo Especial as America’s best-selling beer.

While its lower caloric content certainly appealed to many people, some of Michelob Ultra’s success can also be credited to aggressive marketing campaigns, which helped the brand gain notoriety at major sporting events like the FIFA Club World Cup, NBA games, and the PGA tour. That falls in line with Michelob Ultra’s focus on folks with active lifestyles. 

More people are seeing Michelob Ultra on tap. The new top dog surpassed its sister brand, Bud Light, in bar and restaurant presence in December 2024. Michelob Ultra’s upsurge in popularity happened at a relatively quick pace; the brand has flourished by 15% since 2020. That equates to a 2% hold over the entire beer market in that time frame.

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A.I. investors shouldn’t swim upstream, but fish downstream: companies whose products rely on achieving high-quality results from somewhat ambiguous information will see increased productivity and higher profits. These sectors include professional services, healthcare, education, financial services, and creative services, which together account for between a third and a half of global GDP and have not seen much increased productivity from automation. AI can help lower costs, but how individual businesses incorporate lower costs into their strategies—and what they decide to do with the savings—will determine success. To put it bluntly, using cost savings to increase profits rather than grow revenue is a loser’s game. The companies that will benefit most rapidly are those whose strategies are already conditional on lowering costs.

With A.I., knowledge-intensive services will get cheaper, allowing consumers to buy more of them, while services that require person-to-person interaction will get more expensive, taking up a greater percentage of household spending. This points to obvious opportunities in both. But the big news is that most of the new value created by AI will be captured by consumers, who should see a wider variety of knowledge-intensive goods at reasonable prices, and wider and more affordable access to services like medical care, education, and advice.

There is nothing better than the beginning of a new wave, when the opportunities to envision, invent, and build world-changing companies leads to money, fame, and glory. But there is nothing more dangerous for investors and entrepreneurs than wishful thinking. The lessons learned from investing in tech over the last 50 years are not the right ones to apply now. The way to invest in AI is to think through the implications of knowledge workers becoming more efficient, to imagine what markets this efficiency unlocks, and to invest in those. For decades, the way to make money was to bet on what the new thing was. Now, you have to bet on the opportunities it opens up.

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There is a consistent doom-and-gloom forecast that within 18 months A.I. software will make human capabilities worthless. The far more significant crisis is precisely the opposite. Young people are already degrading their cognitive capabilities by outsourcing their minds to machines long before software is ready to steal their jobs.

Many recent articles have loudly proclaimed what most people were already thinking: Everybody is using AI to cheat their way through school. By allowing high school and college students to summon into existence any essay on any topic, large language models have created an existential crisis for teachers trying to evaluate their students’ ability to actually write, as opposed to their ability to prompt an LLM to do all their homework. Massive numbers of students are going to emerge from university with degrees, and into the workforce, who are essentially illiterate.

The demise of writing matters, because writing is not a second thing that happens after thinking. The act of writing is an act of thinking. Students, scientists, and anyone else who lets AI do the writing for them will find their screens full of words and their minds emptied of thought.

As writing skills have declined, reading has declined even more. Most of our students are functionally illiterate. Achievement scores in literacy and numeracy are declining across the West for the first time in decades.

Americans are reading words all the time: email, texts, social media newsfeeds, subtitles on Netflix shows. But these words live in fragments that hardly require any kind of sustained focus; and, indeed, Americans in the digital age don’t seem interested in, or capable of, sitting with anything linguistically weightier than a tweet. The share of Americans overall who say they read books for leisure has declined by nearly 50 percent since the 2000s.

Even America’s smartest teenagers have essentially stopped reading anything longer than a paragraph. Students are matriculating into America’s most elite colleges without having ever read a full book. High schools have chunkified books to prepare students for the reading-comprehension sections of standardized exams.

Thinking benefits from a principle of “time under tension.” It is the ability to sit patiently with a group of barely connected or disconnected ideas that allows a thinker to braid them together into something that is combinatorially new. 

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A.I. related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Data centers are eclipsing office construction spending and are coming under increased scrutiny for their impact on power grids and rising electricity prices.

The biggest medium-term risk I can think of for top heavy US equity markets: China’s Huawei and SMIC pierce the $6.3 trillion NVIDIA-TSMC-ASML moat by creating their own supernode computing clusters and deep-ultraviolet lithography machines of comparable quality.

Oracle’s stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI, an amount of money OpenAI doesn’t earn yet, to provide cloud computing facilities that Oracle hasn’t built yet, and which will require 4.5 GW of power (the equivalent of 2.25 Hoover Dams or four nuclear plants), as well as increased borrowing by Oracle whose debt to equity ratio is already 500%. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change.

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This is a fascinating look at how foreign households invest. I had no idea U.K. residents had such a low percentage of their personal investments in stocks, and the amount Japanese citizens hold in cash (which has provided no interest/return for decades) is incredible.

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Africa is enormous. These countries would all fit within Africa’s border:

Money, Happiness & Cancer

William Vanderbilt was the son of the great Cornelius Vanderbilt. When his father died, Cornelius was the richest person on the planet. Billy took his father’s wealth and almost immediately doubled it with some shrewd business maneuvers (in today’s terms, imagine Elon Musk’s son inheriting $500 billion when he dies and then investing it and quickly doubling it to $1 trillion). Being the richest rich person didn’t make William Vanderbilt any happier:

“The sheer magnitude of his fortune, he told Chauncey Depew, gave him no advantages over men of moderate wealth. “I have my house, my pictures and my horses, and so do they. I can have a steam yacht if I want to, but it would give me no pleasure, and I don’t care for it.” On another occasion he spoke of a neighbor saying, “He isn’t worth a hundredth part as much as I am, but he has more of the real pleasures of life than I have. His house is as comfortable as mine, even if it didn’t cost so much; his team is about as good as mine; his opera box is next to mine; his health is better than mine, and he will probably outlive me. And he can trust his friends.”

Being the richest person in the world brought him, he said, nothing but anxiety.

The founder of MVMT recently sold his company for $100 million at age 29. He recently posted on Reddit how two years after selling his company he’s lonelier than ever and deeply depressed. Money dramatically improves everyone’s lives up until the point they can relax and be content. After that, assuming they are in moderately good health, almost all happiness comes internally.

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The largest medical A.I. randomized controlled trial yet performed, enrolling >100,000 women undergoing mammography screening, was published today. The use of A.I. led to 29% higher detection of cancer, no increase of false positives, and reduced workload compared with radiologists without A.I.

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The Drug Industry Is Having Its Own DeepSeek Moment. It isn’t just artificial intelligence—Chinese biotechs are now developing drugs faster and cheaper than their U.S. counterparts. Many top scientists trained in the U.S. have returned to China over the past decade, fueling the emergence of biotech hubs around Shanghai. And just as DeepSeek built a formidable chatbot—allegedly on a lean budget with limited access to semiconductors—Chinese biotech companies are also scrappier, capitalizing on a highly skilled, lower-cost workforce that can move faster. Additionally, companies can conduct clinical trials at a fraction of what they would cost in the U.S., while recent changes in the Chinese regulatory system have streamlined and accelerated the approval process to get a study started.

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A new study by Stanford University researchers finds that the average online sportsbook customer expects a gain of 0.3 cent for every dollar wagered. In reality, sports bettors lose an average of 7.5 cents per dollar wagered, reflecting widespread overoptimism about financial returns. We found that people more or less understood the amount of money they had lost in the past, but they just thought the future would be better. Parlay bettors do so much worse than single-outcome bettors and are so much more overconfident in their chances that they likely account for most of the excessive optimism in the overall sample.

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Only 13% of U.S. imports come from China:

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European stocks have under-performed U.S. stocks in 12 of the last 15 years. However, the pedestrian pace of the European economy and markets could be a virtue for investors in the years ahead. Europe suffers from none of the over-building excesses that haunt the Chinese economy. European equity markets have none of the bubbly valuations that pose a threat to U.S. stocks. A starting point of a weak euro and monetary easing, combined with a high savings rate and fiscal capacity has the potential to boost both economic growth and dollar-denominated returns on European equities. Attractive dividend yields can allow European equities play a respectable role in generating income. Moreover, political pressure from within Europe, along with the threat of tariffs from the United States, could motivate bolder action from European policymakers in both deregulation and fiscal stimulus, triggering greater economic momentum. The strongest case for European equities is simply a value case. At the end of January, the MSCI Europe ex-UK had a forward P/E of 14.7 times compared to 21.8 times for the S&P500, a discount that is more than two standard deviations greater than its average over the past 20 years. It also sported a dividend yield of 3.3% compared to 1.3% for the S&P500.

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The silver market is heading into a perfect storm. Even in our most conservative case, holding everything but solar demand constant, we’re looking at potential deficits of 100-200 million ounces annually for the next decade. Solar panels now consume one in four ounces of silver mined globally. Even at current solar installation rates – before factoring in any AI-driven surge in energy demand – we’re looking at a supply-demand gap as large as the entire elastic (price-sensitive) portion of silver supply. Solar demand is structurally inelastic – panel manufacturers will buy silver at almost any price because it represents a tiny fraction of total costs but is essential to functionality. The sheer scale of the energy transition dwarfs anything in silver’s industrial history – we’re talking about rebuilding the entire global energy infrastructure.