Survivorship Bias, Assumptions & Ostrich Feathers

The Rise Of Dopamine Culture & The Anhedonia It Brings With It

Why Americans Suddenly Stopped Hanging Out

What Are We Assuming Today That Could Change Tomorrow?

Everyone Acts On Faith When It Comes To Investing

Survivorship Bias & How The Qualities That Drive People To Greatness Can Lead To Their Downfall

Will Bitcoin End Up Being Digital Gold Or Digital Pearls?

Investment Fads Eventually End: Remembering The Luxury Ostrich Feather Hats

Japanese Stocks At New All-Time Highs Are Still Less Expensive Than The U.S. & India Based On P/E Ratios:

The intro to John Hussman’s February 24 commentary on U.S. stocks:

“The failure of the general market to decline during the past year despite its obvious vulnerability, as well as the emergence of new investment characteristics, has caused investors to believe that the U.S. has entered a new investment era to which the old guidelines no longer apply. Many have now come to believe that market risk is no longer a realistic consideration, while the risk of being underinvested or in cash and missing opportunities exceeds any other.

– Barron’s Magazine, February 3, 1969

The S&P 500, having peaked a few weeks earlier, was down 36% by May 1970. Perhaps more importantly, the cumulative total return of the S&P 500 lagged the cumulative return of Treasury bills from November 1968 until December 1985.

Portugal Has Nearly Eliminated Drug Overdoes While U.S. Deaths Continue To Skyrocket Higher – Portugal has roughly the same population as the state of New Jersey. But while New Jersey alone sees nearly 3,000 fatal drug overdoses a year, Portugal averages around 80. What’s different in Portugal? In the late 1990s, the country faced an explosion of heroin use. The drug was causing roughly 350 overdose deaths a year and sparked a wave of HIV/AIDS and other diseases linked to dirty needles. Portugal’s leaders responded by pivoting away from the U.S. drug war model, which prioritized narcotics seizures, arrests and lengthy prison sentences for drug offenders. Instead, Portugal focused scarce public dollars on health care, drug treatment, job training and housing. The system, integrated into the country’s taxpayer-funded national health care system, is free and relatively easy to navigate.

At its peak, Nortel reached 38.6% of Canada’s stock market. The stock went to zero. In Finland, Nokia reached 76.8% of the stock market’s total value. Today, Novo Nordisk is 70.6% of Denmark’s stock market:

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